Wednesday, January 3, 2007

The Hybrid Phenomenon 1st Draft

DRAFT 1/3/08

John - Which author should we list 1st? John Edward Acheson, M.S. or Norma Carr-Ruffino, Ph.D. – I have no ego need to be listed first but I wonder about impact on editors??? I’ll go along with your preference on this
Queries – please see my questions I nred throughout article
Footnotes – need to be adapted – and references added at end


Other possible articles??:
1. Alternatives to oil (p10-25) – supply and demand, diversity of fuel sources
2. Hybrid Markets (p 48-72) – size and growth, California chasm, future, types of buyers, incentives
3. Hybrid Automakers (p 73-96)- the 4 major ones, their strategies, details

By xxxxxx
DRAFT 1/2/06
Energy independence by 2020 was the cover story of the January 2007 issue of The Futurist. Tsvi Bisk set the tone:
“In the opinion of many foreign-policy experts, the greatest threats to world security and peace are Iran’s nuclear program, international Jihadist terror, and radicalization among the Muslim populations in Europe and North America. What is the common thread among these various threats? All are financed by Persian Gulf petrodollars.”
Gary Yohe added his bit: “U.S. dependence on foreign oil endangers our national security” and “our emissions-heavy activities may be endangering our very civilization.” Recent surveys indicate this story has widespread support:
• 86 percent of Americans say the government should require better auto fuel efficiency. (Pew)
• 82 percent of policy and security experts say we must reduce foreign-oil use in order to combat terrorism (Foreign Policy)
Enter the Hybrid Phenomenon. What’s that? Mainly, tt’s about millions of automobile owners around the world choosing hybrids and alternative fuels as platforms to promote the greening of the automobile business. Automakers are being impacted by energy instability and prices, as customers push for cleaner and more efficient solutions. Alternative fuels are gaining traction as drivers start moving away from “big oil” and “big energy.”
New, highly efficient, clean-burning vehicles are disrupting the automobile industry and offering hope to environmentalists searching for sustainable options. For example, the leading hybrid automaker Toyota by 2006 had placed 250,000 hybrids on U.S. roads. (John, this seems to few – see720k on page 4) By 2006 these vehicles alone (John-correct?) had logged 5 billion miles and had saved the environment:
• 4 billion barrels of crude oil
• 3 million pounds of smog-forming gases
• 900,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide.
Globally, Toyota reported over 500,000 hybrid sales (?again, p.4). Toyota’s one million hybrid sales target for 2010 was getting closer, and hybrid costs had been almost halved since 1997 (date right?).
The Hybrid Phenomenon is about saving time and money at the fuel pump, but it’s also about saving a part of the world every day. Transportation is responsible for about a quarter of greenhouse gases, and the United States is the greatest contributor. Carbon emissions are correlated with climate change, and diesel particulates with premature death, and hybrids reduce emissions by up to 95 percent.
The Hybrid Phenomenon is a movement that allows drivers to change the world and feel good about it. Hybrids save natural resources. They result in cleaner air in our communities. They also provide hope for a brighter future, inspiring future generations to adopt sustainable practices. In business and commerce, hybrid dollars help stimulate economies and create jobs. The movement also creates global virtual communities, empowering people to promote environmental sustainability. The Hybrid Phenomenon shouts globally and acts locally every day!
It’s amazing to think that the Hybrid Phenomenon emerged from the Toyota Prius, originally an odd-looking car developed by 1,000 engineers who threw out 80 designs. They finally settled on a 100-year-old technology, the hybrid, which simply increased efficiency.
In the 1890s, when the horseless carriage was as likely to run on steam or electricity as on gasoline, a young engineer Dr. Ferdinand Porsche, was asked by his boss Jacob Lohner to design a better electric car. Lohner-Porsche successfully offered a hybrid alternative a few years later. . It filled up on gasoline, but electric motors turned the wheels. The hybrid solved the electric-vehicle problem of limited speed and range. Although electric cars were more efficient, the world’s first hybrid was twice as efficient as today’s Prius and four times more efficient than conventional cars.
Gasoline-powered cars had taken over the passenger car market by the 1920s, thanks to the electric starter and Henry Ford’s assembly line, which made Model T’s affordable for most families. Still, industrial uses for hybrids flourished during the rest of the 20th century. Diesel-electric hybrid trains and heavy equipment industrialized America. As for cars, many incarnations of hybrid concepts were built but none took significant market share until the Prius, which emerged in Japan in 1997 and in the United States in 2000. Actually the Honda Insight 2000 was the first mass-produced hybrid vehicle, but the 2001 Prius, and its successors, have been the runaway best seller.

At the turn of the millennium, the hybrid moved out of the industrial age and into the information age. After almost 100 years confined to industrial uses, it went mainstream fast. Hybrid technology finally returned to passenger cars, which were in mass production by 2000. Utilizing off-the-shelf (John–adjective-computer? software?) technologies, hybrids may soon sustain an auto industry in crisis. More efficient power management and the ability to recycle energy serve to increase fuel efficiency. Hybrids have become the most visible transportation product that reduces oil consumption, ranging from inputs of oil and gasoline, through consumer use and behavior, to outputs that affect the economy and environment,
From 1997 through the first half of 2006, aggregate global hybrid sales for new cars and light trucks totaled 820,000 units. In 2005, 20 percent of sales took place in Japan and 68 percent went to the most important market, the United States. Toyota dominated the market with over 720,000 units sold by July 2006 or almost 90 percent of hybrid market share (John – does this refer to U.S. market, as placement would indicate? Please check all such figures to be sure they match). The demand for the Prius exceeded everybody’s expectations, (Raskin), and the hybrid market grew faster than any other.
Hybrids have become the most efficient, disruptive and flexible transportation platforms ever invented, compatible with just about any fuel and vehicle; for example:
• Fuels such as gasoline, diesels, E10, E85, E100 (John what is this? Ethanol?), electricity, hydrogen, and gases
• Vehicles such as cars, trucks, trains, buses, ships, submarines, and spacecraft
The four main types of hybrid platforms could use any of these fuels.
.Hybrids fall into four main platforms: full hybrids, plug-in hybrids, light hybrids, and mild hybrids. In addition, hybrids could utilize various fuels, including gasoline, diesel, hydraulic, air, steam, nuclear, and alternative fuels, such as ethanol and methanol, and biofuels made from corn or sugar. Some alternative fuels are available in hybrid cars and trucks, while others are still in various stages of research and development.
Full hybrids are the most efficient and widely used cars. They can run on electricity alone. At low speeds, full hybrids can use batteries, computers, and a complicated transmission to move the car without burning any fuel. The Prius has enough technology to run electrically for several miles. This feature increases gas mileage and eliminates noise pollution, which impresses consumers.
Full hybrids require complicated transmissions that constantly juggle two fuels to deliver one smooth connection to turn the wheels. The extra computerized drive train costs make full hybrids the most difficult and expensive to manufacture. However, the Prius has achieved an array of consumer benefits through its Hybrid Synergy Drive transmission. Prius and Ford are the only automakers that produce full hybrids so far.
To add more efficiency to full hybrids, plug-in hybrids have larger battery packs that can plug into external electricity. By 2005 aftermarket plug-in kits were available for Prius owners who want to convert their car to a plug-in, which can run on an electrical charge and achieve gas mileage of up to 100 mpg. Toyota and GM have announced plans for plug-in hybrids but none were available in showrooms as of 2007.
The light hybrids reduce fuel consumption by shutting the engine down when the vehicle is stopped. The stopping and restarting of the engine is computerized so the driver need not be bothered with this process. GM is the leader in this technology and markets light-hybrid trucks to contractors and similar business persons. GM’s light hybrids use oversized starter/generator technology that produces 120-volt electricity that can be accessed via electrical outlets for power tools, in addition to saving fuel.
Relying primarily on a gasoline engine, the mild hybrid boosts performance with an additional electric motor. This hybrid platform cannot move the vehicle using electricity alone. Mild hybrids provide all the benefits of light hybrids and help the engine burn less fuel. Mild hybrids use conventional transmissions and are cheaper to manufacture than full hybrids. GM and Honda make mild and/or light hybrids.
From 1997 to 2007, only four automakers successfully put hybrids into U.S. showrooms: Toyota, Honda, Ford, and General Motors. In 1997 Toyota released the world’s first mass-produced hybrid in Japan. Honda followed with North America’s first in 1999, followed by Toyota in 2000. Ford released the world’s first “Made in USA” hybrid as well as the first hybrid sports utility vehicle (SUV) in 2004. GM followed a year later with two of the first hybrid pickup trucks..

In 1997 Toyota announced the world’s first hybrid. Toyota’s hybrid platform consists of an electric motor and a gasoline engine and transmission. It is user friendly and versatile. Toyota balances high quality with some of industry’s lowest manufacturing costs.
By the end of 2005, Toyota accelerated hybrid production and expanded into sports utility vehicles (SUVs). All three models of Toyota hybrids were best sellers: Prius, Highlander Hybrid SUV and the Lexus RX 400h SUV.
. In 2006 the Toyota Camry hybrid was redesigned and beat 26 other models to take Motor Trend Car of the Year. Toyota’s 2006 lineup had more hybrid models than all other rivals. In April 2006 Toyota’s Kentucky plant rolled out Toyota’s first “Made in USA” hybrid. Toyota’s hybrid technology had joined its passenger-car line, the best-selling in America. What a long way it had come since its 1997 debut in Japan.
Also in 2006, Toyota announced it goals to produce one million hybrids annually by 2010—and to operate 15 manufacturing plants in North America by 2008.
Honda beat Toyota as the first automaker to sell hybrid passenger cars in the United States. Honda’s 2000 Insight was released to the United States in 1999. It was the highest mileage car rated by the EPA, with up to 70 mpg on the highway.
This Japanese company makes more internal combustion engines (ICE) than any other company in the world (over 20 million per year). Expanding that ability they produced the Insight, which allows drivers to use a “lean-burn” mode. The strategy differs from that of Toyota. Honda’s strategy is to focus on the most efficient and versatile gasoline engine, whereas Toyota’s strategy is to focus on their proprietary hybrid transmission.
Although Insight’s futuristic design provided the highest mileage car ever mass produced, it did not sell very well. Honda changed its hybrid strategy after the Insight, incorporating hybrid technology seamlessly into its mainstream vehicles. Hybrid versions of the Civic and Accord followed the Insight. Both are discernable only by small hybrid emblems and different wheels. In 2006, the Insight was discontinued as Honda confirmed plans to outfit the power train into the stylish Fit. Honda targeted 50 mpg to be released in 2007. Honda is also working on production of a hybrid cross-utility vehicle.
Unlike Toyota, Honda has been able to supply dealers with all the hybrid vehicles they needed. Honda has run second place to Toyota in hybrids sold almost every year since Toyota entered the U.S. hybrid market.
Ford was the third automaker to enter the American hybrid market. In 2004 the long-time truck maker beat both Honda and Toyota to market with the first hybrid sports utility vehicle (SUV). It was the result of Ford’s newfound commitment to the environment under the lead of Bill Ford, Henry Ford’s great grandson.
The Ford Escape Hybrid was certainly more environmentally friendly than any of its other vehicles. When driven at lower speeds, up to 25 mph, it performed as a 100% smog-free electric vehicle. At higher speeds, it relied on a cleaner, more efficient gas engine that helped it get up to 60 percent better mileage. Overall, it produced 80 percent less smog than similar gas vehicles.
Ford secured 100 patents on hybrid technology. 20 of them licensed from Toyota. In exchange for the hybrid licenses, Ford licensed patents involving their European diesel engines to Toyota. Ford used Toyota’s first-generation hybrid technology while Toyota worked on third- and fourth-generation hybrid systems.
As early as 2000, both Honda and Toyota released hybrid compacts to North America that got 50 to 70 miles per gallon. Toyota’s target for the next generation Prius was rumored at 94 mpg. Ford’s Escape was the first hybrid in the controversial SUV category, but Toyota quickly followed with two more hybrid SUVs.
In 2005 Bill Ford projected a global plan to produce 250,000 hybrid vehicles annually by 2010. The company has also released Ford and Mercury hybrids along with several alternative fuel trucks. Ford’s environmental message of sustainability leverages a value of respecting and preserving the environment for future generations. Ford’s socially responsible strategies fall into two broad categories: the environment and technology.
In 2004 General Motors (GM) rolled out the World’s First Hybrid Truck to fleet customers. In 2005 consumers were presented with the Chevy Silverado Hybrid, also cited as the GMC Sierra Hybrid. These “light hybrids” came equipped with a generator. With four electrical outlets each, the trucks can run power tools and appliances in locations where power is unavailable.
GM’s strategy was to start with the biggest vehicles first: buses, trucks and SUVs. In early 2004, hybrid buses and trucks were available under GMC and Chevrolet. In 2006, GM was producing more vehicles that could utilize E85 (explain or change terminology?) fuel and also rolled out a Saturn Hybrid SUV.
Clearly, all major automakers were beginning to compete for hybrid advantages in the marketplace.
From 2000 to 2006 the world’s farthest-reaching industry changed drastically. Markets, technologies and consumer behaviors all changed. More than 40 different hybrid and alternative fuel models representing eight million cars and light trucks traversed American roads. Thirty-five more would be introduced through 2007. Automakers are scrambling to find new strategies in a rapidly evolving industry. Toyota has passed Ford at No. 2 in global sales, and GM at No. 1 is in the hot seat. Comparing 2006 to 2005, the Big 3 automakers lost 23 percent of the U.S. market, while Toyota and Honda gained 16 percent. Several macro forces are influencing consumer behavior:
• cheap oil has reached “peak production”
• governmental regulations are beginning to encourages green consumption
• information technologies are disrupting the manufacturing sector
• Innovations are helping consumers to choose green.
Combined with a labor crisis among American automakers, 2000-2006 was probably the most challenging time in the history of the U.S. auto industry.(source?)
Hybrid makers changed strategies several times, as multiple options for vehicle platforms and fuel choices were considered. CEOs appeared confused by the diversity of technologies and vehicles being embraced all over the world. Engineers hacked hybrids and increased gas mileage. Entrepreneurs started up battery, electric car, and fuel companies. Environmentalists collected used cooking oil and filled up old diesels. Farmers increased corn production for trucks, vans, and SUVs. Home owners with natural gas units filled up in their garages. Venture capitalists sunk billions into alternative fuel industries and clean technologies.
On November 14, 2006, President Bush met with the Big 3 CEOs to address the financial crisis that domestic automakers faced. The Big 3 emphasized Detroit’s impact on America’s economy: (speaker? Who?) “In June, we also agreed collectively to double annual production of vehicles capable of running on renewable fuels to two million cars and trucks by 2010.”
It is interesting that these powerful CEOs, whose companies are responsible for one in every three new vehicle sales, failed to mention the word “hybrid” in this crucially important meeting. Yet, only months earlier two of the Big 3, DaimlerChrysler and GM along with BMW invested over $1 billion and opened The Hybrid Development Center. They deployed over 500 engineers to focus on the development of a next-generation hybrid for trucks. The alliance was intent on leapfrogging Toyota.
Also only months earlier, Toyota’s North American President Jim Press, delivered a pivotal speech about the importance of the automobile industry to America and the world: He said:
• The U.S. auto industry is the largest manufacturing industry in the nation...responsible for one out of every 10 American jobs, and generating nearly 4 percent of the nation's GDP
• It spends more than $15 billion ($22.7 million per day) on Research & Development, more than any other manufacturing industry
• It buys more metals, plastics, rubber and textiles than any other business, including more computer chips than even the computer industry!
• All the top 12 American Fortune 500 and Global Fortune 500 companies are either automakers or support the auto industry in some significant way.
Yet many observers noted that the Big Three U.S. automakers are so far behind in the Hybrid Phenomenon that we might view this situation as the largest trade war ever to invade the U.S. auto industry. On one side are Japanese automakers armed with hybrids. On the other side, Detroit CEOs hunkering down with alternative-fuel vehicles. Both sides directly impact the two largest economies in the world—the United States and Japan. Every car or truck sold goes straight to the trade war’s bottom line. Every slow-selling vehicle is a casualty that waits for extinction, as plants are shuttered and model lines are killed. Fast-selling alternatives and hybrids promise new jobs, new plants, and new power options.
Clearly, the Hybrid Phenomenon is playing a major role in the future of jobs, companies, economies, and countries—as well as in our worldview of energy, transportation, and the environment.
Hybrids brought a new twist in the technological impact of transportation. On one hand, they are much cleaner and more efficient, but on the other hand, almost all modern hybrids rely on gasoline. Honda and Toyota hybrids are addicted to oil while Ford and GM hybrids want to run on corn. Plug-ins emit less pollution but are usually addicted to the same fuels and inefficient electricity grids.
Hybrid technologies have disrupted global automobile industry value chains. Borrowing from industries such as semi-conductors, the hybrid extended the reach of the car business. With these computerized systems working together, hybrids achieved higher efficiencies. For most fuels, hybrids are about twice as efficient as conventional vehicles. But what about the choice of fuel when combined with platform? Let’s consider costs and savings for the average hybrid owner, and then take a deeper look at fuel efficiency through “well-to-wheel” analysis.
What do hybrids have to offer car owners and society in general?
• Hybrids are 10-20 percent more efficient overall.
• They are 50-100 percent cleaner than the majority of vehicles on the road .
• Average hybrids get 30-60 percent better mileage than their gas counterparts (EPA)
In actual use reported by drivers, hybrid mileage varies widely because of many variables, including driving style, terrain, tire pressure, wind, weight, type of gas, temperature, and condition of vehicle. Optimists view hybrid mileage as a challenge, urging them to find the “sweet spot” mph range. Pessimists criticize automakers because the mileages they experience fall below EPA ratings.
A general analysis of estimated hybrid costs is shown in Table 1. It is based on several studies, including one that appeared in Consumer Reports. All the costs involved in buying, financing, parking, driving and selling vehicles were paid for by owners.
The largest variable in the vehicle ownership value chain is depreciation or resale value. It may also be the largest benefit overlooked in analyzing hybrid costs. Because of the shortage of available Priuses, for example, at least one owner estimates a 100 percent increase in the trade-in value of a 2001 Prius for a 2005 model, rather than 10-30 percent more, as shown. This same owner also indicates that maintenance and repairs were actually 10-20 percent less, rather than the 3-10 percent more that the estimate shown in Table 1. (Carr-Ruffino).
Table 1: Hybrid Costs and Savings
Manufactured Suggested Retail Price 10-30% more
Use and sales taxes 10-30% more
Registration fees 10-30% more
Maintenance and repairs 3-10% more
Insurance 5-10% less
Gasoline 30-60% less
Tolls and parking 30-100% leas
Income tax benefits Up to $7,853 less
Resale value 10-30% more

Since only 1 percent of any fuel power actually moves the driver down the road, it is insightful to analyze various technologies from an efficiency standpoint. In most simple fuel efficiency (John – adjectives make sense?) studies, diesel ranks most efficient, followed closely by gasoline, and electricity almost always ranks last. [John – exactly what type of studies do you refer to here? Ncr)
Well-to-wheel analyses break down fuel and transportation value chains into two components: (1) well to fuel pump and (2) fuel pump to wheel. The first measures everything from accessing the natural resources to providing fuel at the pump. The second analysis gets more attention from consumers, but only looks at half the picture—from the pumping of fuel into the vehicle to the turning of the wheels.
A comparison of hybrid and conventional technologies brings forth the importance of fuel choice. Studying well-to-wheel analyses shows how complicated fuel efficiency actually is. For example, switching to alternative fuels or plugging into an electrical grid can connect the user to huge infrastructures that are not necessarily cleaner.
Dr. R.E. West and Dr. Frank Kreith of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers conducted research on this topic, which was published in Mechanical Engineering Power. The analysis compares transportation choices in terms of well-to-wheel efficiency (see Figure 1). The research assumes that natural gas is the primary input; i.e. all the fuels in the study were measured as if they were produced by natural gas. The study compared gasoline, hydrogen, diesel and electricity using the same natural gas input, whereas in actuality, gasoline and diesel come from oil, while hydrogen and electricity are a mixed bag that might includes natural gas or coal as inputs. This one-input approach gives an apples-to-apples comparison of “12 significant technologies that could power the U.S. ground transportation system.”
(John can you translate types of fuel in figure 1 so they’re easier for lay person to understand? Hybrid diesel- what does FT/CH 4? Mix mean?, Hybrid SI + Ch4 mean? In fact would it be practical to re-do this figure, using a more readable and understandable format?)

Figure 1: Well to Wheel Vehicle Efficiency

Source: Kreith and West, “Gauging Efficiency.”

Interestingly, the top three technologies were all hybrids—two diesel hybrids and a gasoline hybrid—which ranked 32, 32. and 30 percent efficiency, respectively. Not surprisingly, the conventional vehicles ranked near the bottom at 19 percent for diesel and 14 percent for gas.
According to a Toyota well-to-wheel analysis, the Prius gasoline hybrid nearly matched the diesel hybrids. Toyota reported the Prius at 37 percent vehicle efficiency, but adding fuel efficiency lowered the well-to-wheel result. Toyota assumed that gasoline was 79 percent efficient. Multiplying vehicle efficiency by fuel efficiency produced the well-to-wheel rating for the Prius at 29 percent efficient overall. In other words, only 7 of 10 barrels of oil were lost before turning the wheels on a Prius versus 8 or 9 for a conventional vehicle.
Benefits of hybrid technologies go well beyond gas mileage. They lead towards new applications and platforms. Bringing flexibility, the hybrid has the potential to cross the chasm to greater innovation in a variety of situations. By increasing the efficiency of almost any fuel and type of vehicle, the tradeoff in price seems minimal compared to the growing number of benefits. If users continue their present rate of investment in hybrid technology, it will firmly establish itself as the core technology in the automobile industry.
Surveys indicate that many hybrid owners joined the Hybrid Phenomenon to help themselves, but also to help the world. Drivers save money on gas, leaving more oil for other purposes. They enjoy quiet rides, allowing others to breathe cleaner air. They get to feel good about the car they drive. Their hybrids recycle energy and demonstrate how to enjoy life while saving our oil reserves and our planet.
The Hybrid Phenomenon is helping the world in a variety of ways. Participants include hybrid owners, fleet managers, automakers, and researchers. Following are some types of actions that these stakeholders might take to expand the Hybrid Phenomenon.
What can hybrid owners do? Actions might include:
• learn how to get better mileage and teach others
• car share and rent hybrids
• buy and sell new hybrids every two years
• buy a cheap high-mileage hybrid and turn it into a plug-in
• let your family and friends drive your hybrid
• join a hybrid community
• write letters to automakers and policy makers extolling the virtues of hybrids
Corporate executives who manage fleets of hybrids might take these types of actions:
• buy/lease and donate new hybrids every two years
• collaborate with automakers and researchers to improve technologies
• share your fleet with organizations and schools
• teach future generations
• promote hybrids
Automakers might consider the following types of actions:
• disclose efficiencies
• collaborate to accelerate sustainable technology
• use open source designs
• research real world fuel and vehicle combinations
• focus on making hybrids cheaper
• make the concept-to-reality process shorter, cheaper, and more relevant to buyers needs
• give customers what they want
• give back to society through more sustainable transportation options
Anyone interested in expanding the research on sustainable forms of transportation can consider these types of questions:
• Who should be responsible (ranked by key players) for sustainable transportation?
• How efficient (including rate of change in real time by geography and demographics) are real world fuel and vehicle combinations?
• How correlated is well-to-wheel efficiency to variables such as gas mileage, emissions by pollutant, automaker profits, jobs, economic activity?
• Why do buyers switch vehicle platforms?
• Why would hybrid owners switch to other platforms?
• What are differences among American, Asian and European hybrid buyers?
• What are some low-technology transportation solutions that are affordable for all?
Perhaps the best place to begin additional research is well-to-wheel analysis. Instead of using static data, use numbers that reflect rates of change. Some solutions are moving towards sustainability faster than others.
What really serves to expand the sustainable transportation phenomenon are those everyday choices that people perceive—new vehicle platforms and alternative fuel choices. Such choices are what really matter in the quest for sustainable ways to live the good life—for everyone, not just the affluent few. The Hybrid Phenomenon is one of those accelerating choices—perhaps our best bet at this point in time.

(add relevant references)

Carr-Ruffino, Norma, interview

Foreign Policy magazine surveyed 100 policy and security experts for their opinion on how to combat terrorism. “Reduce foreign-oil use” was the most popular of 7 proposals, favored by 82 percent. 2005.

Pew Center polled the American people to gauge their support for conservation and alternative-fuel policies. “Require better auto fuel efficiency” was the most popular of the five proposals offered, favored by 86% of respondents. 2005.

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