What do you get when you cross FREE wind & FREE sun with $$$ super capacitors???
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Saturday, January 31, 2009
Revolution Y
What do you get when you cross FREE wind & FREE sun with $$$ super capacitors???
Fisker Karma: Sexy Green Luxury

- The world's most important auto show
- just opened to the public in "motor city!"
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Hybrid Option on Every Toyota
Stanford didn't seem to think it would fit their
new automotive research center focused on "rethinking the automobile"
are planning to offer hybrids on EVERY future automobile.
Looks like my three years of hybrid research from 2003 through 2006
could have been ahead of it's time... According to the Wall Street Journal at
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121883067453545253.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Toyota will follow the words of Jim Press (Toyota's ex-American boss) below
and offer a hybrid option on every single vehicle before cheap oil runs out!
How can these world's largest business bet on hybrid technology???
Well that's pretty simple:
"hybrids" are compatible with all fuels including
gasoline, diesel, E85, electricity, plutonium, water, wood, natural gas, etc.
ALSO "hybrids" are also buildable in any configuration including:
car, bus, truck, train, ship, submarine, spaceship, etc.
AND "hybrids are already powering every part of our life including:
- our washer dryers are hybrid
- our kitchens are hybrid
- restaurants are hybrid
- commercial real estate buildings are hybrid
- our apartments, houses and office are hybrid
- our cities are hybrids or more
so should our daily transportation go hybrid
or jump straight to the inevitable next step - digital???
Saturday, March 8, 2008
VIDEO: Every Car Will be a Hybrid by Jim Press
every Chrysler product will have a hybrid platform"
Chrysler President Sees Green
Jim Press is the ex-president of Toyota America
and worked his way up to a seat on the board
as the highest ranking position for a non-Japanese
for the world's number one automaker.
He now leads the challenge at Chrysler
after heading up the Prius Phenomenal
rise to ubiquity through the Hybrid!!!
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Why are the different types (full, mid, and light) and brands (Toyota, Ford, General Motors, and Honda) so important and what contributes to that?
Kind of like brands of clothes regardless if they are made from
brands and stores and prices usually mean more.
Why or why not?
DIGITIZE any chemical technology and make
it BETTER, FASTER and/or MORE EFFICIENT!
chemical technologies if consumers pay the small extra.
The hybrid is compatible with every gas-powered technology,
BOTH
a chemical and/or digital society!
Do you think that hybrid car levels will ever meet or exceed the number of gas-powered ones?
From the 7th grade, I received the following question about hybrids:
Q) Do you think that hybrid car levels will ever meet or exceed the number of gas-powered ones?
First of all, let's discuss the UNITED STATES market for NEW automobiles.
U.S. COMPARED TO WORLDWIDE
Globally, NEW car and light truck sales usually run about 60 million units,
with 16 to 20 in the U.S. with the rest almost equally divided between
Asia and Europe. Because U.S. consumers (customers) are the most
high profile in the world, the U.S. market is the world's most important.
U.S. CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
There are many things that have changed the U.S. consumer recently.
2008 is forecasted to be one of the worst years in a long time due to
several factors including problems on Wall St, gasoline prices and
of course, a looming recession. These are huge factors that have
nothing to do with the kind of automotive technologies avail,
and according to February data, almost every automaker except
Honda had a drop in sales. Almost all large vehicles were down,
and only the sub-compacts like the Honda Fit spiked upward.
WHAT DRIVES SALES?
There is one variable that appears to be more correlated with
hybrid sales than the others: gasoline prices. Now remember
that the rest of the world uses liters and we use gallons.
So MPG is the consumer side of the equation and U.S. hybrids tend
to look very strong compared to miles per liter or liters per 100km.
HYBRID SALES
Toyota dominates hybrid sales and over the past 10 years
hybrids have followed the typical bell curve upwards.
From 1999 to 2007 hybrids sales grew from 17 to about 350,000.
In my 174 page master's thesis researched from 2004 to 2007,
I identified 100s of hybrids being prepared for showrooms
and forecasted the hybrid market. Experts ranged from
20% to 80% of the overal NEW car market by 2012 to 2020.
FORECAST
My forecast was based on plotting the first several years of U.S. hybrid sales
against Geoffrey Moore's Technology Adoption Life Cycle in Crossing the Chasm.
It's a bell curve and what really drives a technology from something new to
the mainstream is the average buyers. Those that may not understand the
details of how hybrids work and just want a car that gets better mileage.
Under the assumption that the first nine years made up 16% of the area under
Moore's curve, I forecasted that there was 84% of the curve left for Prius and
current generation hybrids. Simple math resulted in a 2.5 million unit market
and at $20,000 per car, it's a $50 billion or $50,000,000,000.00 opportunity.
SUMMARY
To forecast "car levels" we need to look at more than just new car sales
and the current generation of hybrids. How do we count electric cars,
plug-in hybrids, alternative fuel vehicles, etc? If you define "gas-powered ones"
as all the cars like diesel, biodiesel, E85, gasoline-hybrids, flex-hybrids, hydrogen hybrids,
then I would say that hybrids cannot exceed the number of "gas-powered ones."
There are millions of older cars on the road and when and how they are recycled
is up to other factors, usually smog laws driven by politics that has nothing to
do with hybrids being 90% cleaner than most cars.
What I can say for sure is that digital car levels
WILL exceed gas-powered cars in the longer term future.
In the short-term, fuel efficient cars will increase the most
and in the mid-term, hybrids, plug-ins and alternatives
and in the long-term vehicle that have powertrains
controlled by computers. Gas-powered cars have
computer controlled engines, but not
digital transmissions for hybrids, plug-ins and electrics.
CLOSING
The future will converge towards digital just like
the LP became the digital CD that died for the iPod
the tube became the digital transistor that enabled personal computers and flat screens, etc.
According to Jim Press who ran Toyota America to the top,
the automobile industry is the world's biggest and buys
more computers than the computer industry.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
What is Detroit's Strategy?
"Shooting For Last Place" at Forbes http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/25/detroit-autos-carmakers-oped-cz_jf_0226flint.html
that talks about strategy.
It's an excellent discussion of the tactics pursued by the Bid 3 in early 2008, but I argue below that "tactics" are not "strategy."
Jerry, very courageous in tackling one of the most important yet misunderstood business concepts that plagues the auto industry today: strategy.
In simple terms, the strategic problem is how to get from analogue to digital.
DIGITAL DILEMMAS
Kodak struggled with this from film to digital cameras. Hollywood and New York struggled with this from Napster to iTunes while Apple became one of the most powerful in the world. All the computer manufacturers struggled with this from IBM all the way to Dell. Even your industry Jerry, media, has struggled with the print news to YouTube's dominance. What's the common theme???
Cost cutting tactics such as laying off the most expense part of running a business or lowering the cost of sales channels like Dell did with the highly doubted www.dell.com in the computer maker shakeout are simply tactics.
Strategy is almost always confused with tactics. Detroit is focused on tactics while strategies ebb in and out with various technologies, such as hydrogen hype, hybrid phenomenon to plug-in doubts. Employees and technology comes and goes, strategy is like a ship's keel.
The bottom line is that tactics are worthless without a solid strategy.
Did Dell pursue laying off or cost cutting as a strategy? No, Dell pursued the toughest strategy, a combination of two of Porter's generics: 1) cost leadership (the ONE automaker that can make cars cheapest not cheaper) 2) differentiation (something special customers pay more for) to sell directly to the customer and 3) focus or niche (dominating a small piece of the market).
Dell's goal from Michael's (from dorm room to #9 richest American in 2007) autobiography, was to lower customer costs and increase service. This is sometimes referred to as, "best cost," and often misunderstood. Toyota just about has it, but any loss of service of cost of building any car will hurt. Dell succeeded even though the service subsided over the years.
COST LEADERSHIP
The key is that you've got to build cars as cheap or cheaper than anyone else. Dell was able to get days inventory down from weeks to eight days in his book, and it's probably lower today. This is often misunderstood as the lowest prices. An example would be Wal-Mart vs. K-Mart. Wal-Mart can move and track a pallet of anything cheaper and BETTER than any other supply chain in the world! That's cost leadership, just like Toyota executives that eat ramen instead of sushi on international business trips!
What are average days inventory for the auto industry?
Most businessmen know that a day's inventory can
translate into millions of dollars of cost savings.
Compared to Dell at 8 days, I've heard 20 to 40 is good
and during the rise of the Prius, it went negative as people
placed orders, just like shopping at www.dell.com and waited
for their hybrids to be delivered to the local dealership.
DIFFERENTIATION FOCUS NICHE
The lock is that your quality is also above industry standards because you are delivering 2) and/or 3). For Dell, that was not only the products, but the 24/7 real-time advantage of www.dell.com linked to a supply chain that ran just in time and cost accounting that only purchased things when they were already sold. In short, "build to order" or "direct."
Could you imagine if an automaker pursued the impossible "best cost" strategy with the goal of lowering the cost for the customer while delivering the BEST quality and service.
The Big 3 did this once. After Ford invented the assembly line just as Dell invented direct, Ford held costs down to help the masses open up American roads. The goal was social change and not just hiring more people or creating more dealerships. Those were tactics behind the philosophy distilled into a very clear strategy: "best cost."
Jerry, you are absolutely right in that any automaker "caught in the middle" of strategies is doomed for last place. Porter confirms this happening in industry after industry shakeout. Especially when technology matures and a new curve comes along. Firing people or closing dealership WILL NOT get an automaker to a strategy.
Stuck in the middle strategy is pursuing tactics with no strategy. For example, thinking you can be the ONLY automaker with the LOWEST (NOT LOWER OR LOW) costs and NOT LOWEST PRICES!!! Word of advice to Detroit, forget about COST LEADERSHIP and 1), leave that up to Toyota, India, China, Korea, etc.
DETROIT'S OPTIONS
What about strategy 2) and 3). This is a different story! We know that American quality is higher than expected; this is a business ace! You can build a strategy around "something special" such as high quality large trucks, BUT EVERYTHING has to be special, not just the truck. The employees need to feel special, the factory has to ooze special, the suppliers top of the heap, and in the end the price, yes it's high, but customers are happy with special products backed by special service. So the dealership in this case, would only service trucks, and do it better than Toyota, Nissan and anyone else.
What about 3) focus or niche. Porsche is a good example of differentiation strategy, very clear culture, goal and DNA, and guess what, tactics like human resources and dealerships becomes a no-brainer tactic. Small market, proud world-class employees and R&D, high prices, and lots and lots of profits. Enough to try and buy out the 5th largest company in the biggest business in the world. This would be like Tesla buying Chrysler and not the other way around. How can this be??? A clear strategy setup by Porsche decades ago.
DETROIT'S TACTICS
1) chopping heads
This tactic only supports low costs if you can replace those heads with people that can build cars cheaper than ANY OTHER automaker in the world. Otherwise, the new employees better know how to make something special or have specialized knowledge of a market niche, let's say electric vehicles.
2) closing dealerships
This tactic only supports low costs ONLY if you can run dealerships CHEAPER THAN EVERY OTHER AUTOMAKER. As far as differentiation, maybe if you're the first to be able to develop the direct model for cars, but are customers ready? Toyota did sell half a million Prius without a test drive sight unseen... How about niche? Closing dealerships MIGHT WORK if they are consolidated and moved into specialized markets. For example, shut 80% of the dealerships leaving only those in electric vehicle markets open to become the industry's top service provider for maintenance and repair of ALL electric vehicles from Golf Carts to Teslas to Volts.
FINISH LINE
When Detroit finally gives up its quest for revenues and is forced to focus on profits, there is only ONE WAY TO SURVIVE = A VERY CLEAR AND SIMPLE STRATEGY that everyone from the line worker to the greeter at the dealership can understand and take to heart everyday!
Making cars cheaper than everyone else, making special cars and making cars for a specific market are the only generic strategies available according to Porter. Only the brave can dream of mixing these into best costs and those stuck in the middle will die in the digitization of the world's largest business!
Sunday, February 24, 2008
All About Electric & Hybrid Cars Nugget
"nuggets" of information from books
that we can also use for our references
or to back up our arguments.
In All About Electric & Hybrid Cars by Robert J. Traister
Copyright 1982 by TAB BOOKS, INC, Blue Ridge Summit, PA
on pages 82-88 discusses controlling the speed of electric motors.
This is a very expensive and important topic
and was actually the bottleneck for Toyota
in developing the 80 G21 designs into the
Hybrid Synergy Drive that came may failures
and years later. The most expensive was the
decision to start a factory to manufacturer
power controllers because they could not source them.
Traister writes from an engineering perspective
and explains how the "gas pedal" works in electrics and hybrids:
PULSING TECHNIQUE
Rather than controlling the amount of air that enters a gasoline engine,
turning off and on the electricity to the motor depending on where the
gas pedal is describes pulsing or controlling the motor so you can drive.
SCR
Traister cites silicon-controlled rectifiers (SCRs) as the best devices
because they are highly efficient (95%). Compare that with burning
gasoline one of every four strokes (25%). Remember that electric
motors and batteries have been described as 90% efficient in my
interview with a Tesla Motors VP.
PROS = Secret Black Box
Although the SCR has no moving parts, it can clearly be wired
or programmed to perform differently. I believe that nearby is
where you will find billions of dollars of R&D monies invested
over the next 100 years of digital car development.
Probably in the system controllers that tell the SCR
WHEN, which way and what to do,
both in terms of hardware and software.
CONS = Cost
In 1982 dollars, Traister quoted SCR choppers for 400 amps
for the do-it-yourself electric or hybrid vehicle builder at
$750 to $3000 each.
Even back in the day, Traister agreeed with my silver bullet R&D hypothesis
of controllers over batteries by closing the chapter with,
"Much research and development is presently underway by various companies in the motor controller field. A listing of some of these manufacturers can be found in the appendices of this book."
The list was long 25 years ago and I've taken the time to list the names of organizations from Traister's 1983 Appendix E here ON CONTROLLERS: Brewer Associates, Cableform, Inc., Curtis Instruments, Dart Controls, Inc., EHB Systems, Inc., Electric Motion Control Corp., Electric Regulator, EVC Inc., Fengler Controls, FMC Corporation, General Electric Company, General Power Corporation, H.B. Electrical Mfg. Co., Inc., Propel Inc., RH Electronics, Robert Borsche Corporation, Ross Engineering Corporation, Sevcon, Siskiyou Energy Systems, Soleq Corporation, Uniparts Inc. and Unitron Corp.
Now that's a much lower profile yet arguably more important
list than what you see today, and Secret Black Boxes are
just as hidden even though the end product has blossomed.
The list has grown much larger into many different lists today
and one of my favorite is the Automotive X Prize Teams.
It's amazing to see so many digital auto entrepreneurs
with so few patents and hard core controller understanding.
If I was getting into the digital auto game, I would make sure
my team knew about every controller patent out there as
well as every competitor using a controller to drive a car,
then only then, could I successfully plot the tactics to win.
WHY?
Because if Toyota has a $1,000,000,000.00+ head start on SCR and controller R&D,
what company in their right mind could ever catch up. It doesn't matter if we're
talking about the next great battery, electric cars, hybrids or digital cars,
if you don't have hundreds of patents in your Secret Black Box,
you had better get a license or buy a company fast!!!
THANK YOU Traister for
spending several pages laying out a basic explanation for
tomorrow's "gas pedal" in a world accelerating the use of electrons.
TAKEAWAY
So the next time you pick a stock or judge an electric car company,
criticize a hybrid or start up your own digital automaker,
take a good hard look under the hood of the Secret Black Box.
HINT
It's the big black or silver looking thing under every hood
in plain sight with special words like Hybrid Synergy Drive
hiding billions of dollars, thousands of paychecks, hundred of patents
and the basics of what will drive the digital automotive revolution for years to come!
Friday, February 22, 2008
Which Business Score Counts???
there is a very lively debate
on how to keep score of a business.
Most of the businesses are automakers
and the products are usually cars.
The majority camp believes that products are what matter
and the minority camp (that myself and Martin subscribe to)
value business systems as more important than business products.
In Built to Last by two Stanford Professors,
the argument is deepened further,
akin to "clock building" vs "time telling."
Clock building is focusing on things in your company's DNA,
like for Toyota, kaizen, or values like frugality that help
employees on business trips order ramen instead of sushi.
Telling time is like making a MP3 player because everyone else is.
The hybrid and electric vehicle is much like the iPod for the world'
largest business and companies are all over the place in searching
for strategies: some are product based and few are systems based.
IF I WAS TO STARTUP AN AUTOMAKER SYSTEM...
I WOULD START WITH ? ENTITIES...
but let's save that for another blog, sorry...
BACK TO TESLA FOUNDERS BLOG AND MY RESPONSE TO A BLOGGER KINDLY ANSWERING MY QUESTIONS ABOUT PATENTS AND MARTIN'S RESPONSE
One of the most lively debates appears under Martin's posts on Kaizen.
In response to my question," How many patents does the Tesla Roadster have compared to the Prius?"
TEG wrote:
"Here are some examples:" and proceeded to list some important details that obviously costs his voluntary time!
FIRST OF ALL TEG, I would really like to say THANK YOU for going out of your way to do some research and answer my question. That is very kind of you!
You have taught some of the value of a blog (as I'm new to this system, although I've been scribbling for decades)...
Back to the question about patents related to the topic of kaizen.
COMPANY OR CAR???
As Martin and I try to hit home over and over, it's about the business system and much less about the product.
Kaizen is simply one example, and it DOES NOT mean that anything Toyota touches is golden. Anyway, that system had roots in Deming's work, who had also worked with Ford. So, yes you need a team AND a system, but I argue, system first, most argue team first...
Martin said:
"A lot of you seem to miss my point. Kaizen applies to the way you run a factory, work with suppliers, negotiate contracts, structure the company, etc. The whole point is to encourage evolution so that your business gets better over time and learns from its mistakes.
I am talking about evolution of business processes."
THIS IS PROFOUND AND PROVED IN BUILT TO LAST!!!
SO IF WE ARE COMPARING companies and technologies under the system approach, how do we keep score???
Traditionally, we measure sales, or consumer acceptance. That to me only measures the products, half the battle. After all, a company is a collection of resources working in a unique system.
What about measuring the system???
PATENT SCOREBOARD
I would argue that the patent trade war is a good place to start.
What is a patent anyway???
Well, is it not the result of several failures???
Trial and error inside of a business system.
If so, than the number of patents is a great metric for evaluating business systems (companies), especially startups that don't have customers yet.
BACK TO TEG's hard work on Tesla vs. Toyota patents. FIRST OF ALL, it's unfair to compare these two business systems, Toyota is a collection of hundreds of businesses and thousands of suppliers and tens of thousands of employees, while Tesla is a startup.
BUT, I was very curious to see if anyone out there knew that the G21 project that failed through 80 car designs to accidentally land on the Prius and filed 650 PATENTS ALONG THE WAY!!!
The bottleneck for the most successful digital automobile every produced was the high voltage controller. Even Silicon Valley knows little (has far fewer patents on than lo voltages) about high voltage.
Toyota plowed $1 billion into a secret factory head up by an engineer that started his career scrubbing catalytic converters 30 years prior, churning through the system of Kaizen, where failure in R&D is acceptable. Up in Northern Nagoya, the guy built the brains that became the Hybrid Snergy Drive. The product WAS NOT the goal, it was a system to run the first Prius because no supplier could come up with enough high quality controllers.
AGAIN THAT WAS A POTENTIAL $1,000,000,000.00 FAILURE (IRONICALLY THE SAME PRICE AS THE EV-1) WITH MANY SMALL FAILURES ALONG THE WAY THAT BECAME PATENTS (IRONICALLY HOW MANY GM EV-1 PATENTS ARE ON THE SCOREBOARD?).
So the reason I keep bringing the Prius into the picture is that VERY FEW people understand how many failures occured and how the Toyota system worked through those with a rush deadline for the Kyoto Protocol. The managers and engineers hated each other on the project.
The other misunderstanding is that people calculate the $1 billion dollar factory into just the Prius and don't realize it's a system that will probably last until Toyota's last day.
SO WHAT IS THE SCORE???
Toyota ($1 billion high voltage controller secret factory and 650 patents that became the Hybrid Synergy Drive)
GM's how many patents on E-Flex
Tesla's how many patents on energy management
Mitsubishi's how many patents on in-wheel electrics
Ford's (300+ related to the Escape hybrid) how many plug-in controller patents
Where we can get a scoreboard of patents on the high voltage race to the digital automobile???
PS I'm not asking for patent search help, as this is not an engineering scoreboard, think ESPN that reports the score on each of the sports systems running. Just the area of patents and number by company.
About Me
- John Acheson
- Portland, OR, United States
- LinkedIn Profile http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnmba Yahoo Answers Profile http://answers.yahoo.com/my/profile;_ylt=AqUFgloHkgwIawoJS0O77lDsy6IX;_ylv=3?show=98f170ed6dadf6edd5fc239fce211dfcaa&preview=true
